The United Nations on Friday called for an independent international investigation into a devastating explosion at an overcrowded hospital in Gaza City earlier this week, as the conflict between Israel’s military and Hamas rages.
Palestinian officials in the besieged Gaza Strip blamed the Israeli strike on an explosion at al-Ahli Arab Hospital, while the Israeli military said it was caused by an errant rocket fired by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad armed group, which denied the claim. Israel’s ally the United States also blamed Palestinian fighters, while Arab states blamed Israel.
The Palestinian Ministry of Health said more than 470 people were killed in the explosion, while Israel said the number was deliberately inflated. American intelligence agencies estimated the number of victims at 100 to 300 people.
In the days before the explosion, Israel ordered 1.1 million Palestinians in northern Gaza to evacuate to the southern part of the Strip ahead of an imminent ground offensive. The Israeli military specifically issued an evacuation warning for al-Ahli Arab Hospital, according to the Church of England, which runs the medical facility.
On Friday, a spokesman for the UN human rights office said staff were trying to gather evidence at the site, but heavy bombardment and fuel shortages amid Israel’s “total siege” of the enclave were hampering efforts.
Meanwhile, several news organizations, including Al Jazeera, have been analyzing video footage of the incident in recent days to piece together what happened. While Al Jazeera continues to gather information, here’s what you need to know:
What happened?
The explosion occurred around 19:00 local time (16:00 GMT) on Tuesday. Live footage from Al Jazeera showed a bright light rising into the sky and flashing twice before drastically changing direction and exploding.
An explosion is then seen on the ground in the distance, followed by a second much larger explosion closer to the camera.
Footage and images from the hospital grounds subsequently showed about two dozen destroyed vehicles in the parking lot. They were surrounded by damaged buildings with some broken windows and blood on the walls and ground.
An Al Jazeera Digital investigation found no basis for the Israeli military’s claim that the attack on the al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza was caused by a failed rocket launch. pic.twitter.com/DQsrBXfwmL
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) October 19, 2023
An investigation by Al Jazeera’s Sanad verification team found that Israeli statements appeared to have misinterpreted evidence to create a story that one of the flashes recorded by multiple sources was a missile failure.
Based on a detailed review of all the videos, Sanad concluded that the flash that Israel attributed to the launch failure was in fact consistent with Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system intercepting a missile fired from the Gaza Strip and destroying it in mid-air.
Channel 4, which published a video analysis after reviewing the evidence presented by both sides, he said “there is no evidence that the explosions in the air and on the ground are necessarily related”.
So far, there appears to be no conclusive evidence to determine who was behind the second explosion, the one that hit al-Ahli Hospital. A number of organizations have suggested that the relatively small crater left by the attack appears to be incompatible with weapons that Israel typically fires.
However, the use of another type of artillery cannot be ruled out.
Investigative journalism group Bellingcat identified what appeared to be an impact crater after analyzing footage and images of the aftermath. In a preliminary analysis, the team said the soil surrounding one side of the crater showed a cone of scarring and pitting, consistent with a munitions explosion at the site.
Marc Garlasco, military advisor to the PAX Protection of Civilians team, noted that the point of impact does not appear to be consistent with the 500, 1,000, or 2,000-pound bombs used in the JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munitions) used by Israel. Bellingcat message.
Channel 4 journalists who visited the site after the incident also reported seeing small craters compatible with mortar strikes rather than rockets. Surrounding buildings had only superficial damage and no structural collapse occurred.
The broadcaster said “this makes a ground-based detonation attack by Israeli rockets unlikely, but does not rule out aerial munitions, which could cause heavy loss of life but cause much less structural damage”.
Footage reviewed by BBC, meanwhile, revealed discrepancies in the reconstruction of events presented on Wednesday by Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari. “The spokesman said it was fired from a nearby cemetery – and there is a cemetery next to the hospital. But the map shown by the speaker showed the launch site further away. We were unable to find a cemetery there,” the British network said.
Missile fragments are an important part of the missing evidence, according to the broadcaster. Missiles are often identifiable by their casing debris and can be used to determine the origin of the missile, but in this case the evidence has yet to be found.
Is there more evidence?
Social media accounts on both sides have been scoured for clues as accusations fly and tempers flare.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad posted a message on Telegram at 19:09 on the night of the explosion that it had fired a volley of rockets at Israel – just minutes after the explosion took place.
In an interview with The New York Times on Wednesday, Musab al-Breim, a spokesman for the group, said the timing of posts does not always indicate the timing of launches.
Suspicions were also raised by posts on X sent by Hananya Naftali, a digital adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Israeli air force hits Hamas terror base in hospital in Gaza,” he wrote, but the post was deleted almost immediately.
At 10:58 p.m., Naftali apologized on X for sharing a “Reuters report” that “falsely stated that Israel hit the hospital.” He said he has since deleted the tweet. “Since (the Israeli army) is not bombing hospitals, I assumed that Israel was targeting one of the Hamas bases in Gaza,” he added.
The Israeli military also released a video recording a conversation between alleged Hamas officials in which they appear to be talking about the misfired rocket that caused the hospital to explode.
Channel 4 said in its analysis that it considered the credibility of the call questionable due to the syntax used, accent and tone of voice.
One journalist later asked Hagari at a press conference: “I would like you to address the issue of credibility because … (the Israeli military) has a less than perfect record on credibility”.
In his response, Hagari acknowledged previous shortcomings but said things are different now.
